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Of the existing 13 tools reviewed, a first
pass assessment discounted five from further detailed assessment
(SimCoastTM, DYHAM, Countryside Agency Viewer, Broad Scale
Modelling Theme, and RIKS) based on the limited functionality
that they offer. However, it is also recognised that the
remaining tools do not necessarily provide all functionality
required by the ESPACE project. As such, the ‘discounted’ tools
may be reconsidered in respect of informing any tool development
required by the ESPACE project.
Of the remaining eight tools, each may be
thought of as having very real strengths, and weaknesses,
when considering their implementation as an ESPACE tool.
This consideration in no way reflects the actual quality
of the tool in question, but rather reflects that each of
the tools have been developed with specific aims and objectives
in mind that map on to the ESPACE requirements to a varying
extent.
The UKCIP ‘Risk,
Uncertainty and decision making’ framework
provides excellent guidance on the decision making
framework appropriate for assessing the impact of climate
change, and as such may be considered to provide a
top level framework that informs the ESPACE project.
The MDSF may
be seen to provide a set of procedures and tools suitable
for the calculation of fluvial flooding and coastal erosion,
and the resultant socio-economic impacts using a scenario-based
approach to decision testing. It links GIS visualisation
with external models for the calculation of fluvial water
levels and coastal erosion contours, and as such offers a
high degree of scale independence. It also provides the further
advantages of being a relative mature system that has been
already widely piloted, and crucially, is an Environment
Agency owned system that is readily implementable by the
ESPACE project. However, the MDSF does not readily provide
assessment of the environmental or water resource impact
of climate change, nor does it explicitly provide simple
virtual reality visualisations for communicating the decision
making process to stakeholders.
The Foresight ‘Flood and Coastal Defence’ project,
and the Flood
Ranger tool together provide guidance
on flood defence and coastal defence referenced against UKCIP
climate change scenarios, and a demonstration application
that provides excellent visualisation to the stakeholder
community. However, in considering the Flood Ranger demonstration
application, it is important to note that this has not been
developed as a decision-testing tool suitable for use with
real data e.g., virtual landscapes and simplified modelling
is embedded in the application, and there is no readily available
mechanism to incorporate real data into the application.
The RegIS and MONARCH studies both sit within
the broad UKCIP framework and provide a clear focus on the
environmental impact of climate change, primarily through
use of biodiversity modelling. However, neither study provides
a strong capability for assessing climate change driven impacts
on flood risk management and the consequent socio-economic
indicators. It is also notable that neither study appears
to provide a Decision-Testing Tool that is generalisable
to a variety of different study areas.
Given the respective strengths and weaknesses
of each of the existing tools, it is therefore recommended
that the MDSF system is piloted on the Thames
Estuary project.
The principal decision testing tools that have been used
in TE2100 project are MDSF and FloodRanger Professional, supported by use
of the source-pathway-receptor model, IPCC/UKCIP climate change scenarios,
TUFLOW and ISIS hydraulic modelling software and Excel.
•
Source-Pathway-Receptor model to help identify the problem and objectives
•
IPCC/UKCIP climate change scenarios to define climate change scenarios
and their impact on the sources of flooding (primarily sea level rise and
surges)
•
TUFLOW and iSIS hydraulic modelling
software to convert changes in extreme sea level to water depths
at the receptors (primarily properties
and people)
•
MSDF software to calculate flood risk (consequences x probability)
by translating scenario-neutral water depths at receptors
into economic flood damage and social impact
•
Excel Workbook to post process results and map the scenario-neutral
data to specific strategic options
•
FloodRanger Professional software as a strategic option
exploration and visualisation tool for stakeholders
Generic
quantitative risk assessment was undertaken through
the application of the selected Decision Testing Tools. The
principal tool used during this stage of the piloting was
the MDSF (Modelling and Decision Support Framework). This
permitted the rapid estimation of direct economic damages
associated with the flooding of residential and commercial
properties, and an estimation of the number of people affected
by flooding. This tool was supported by the use of the ISIS
1-dimensional and TUFLOW 2-dimensional hydraulic modelling
software applied to the study area to provide information
on estimated flood extent, depth and rate of flooding. These
data were further processed to enable the calculation of
risk of loss of life based on a rate of rise in flood water
criterion.
Importantly, the application of the MDSF
decision testing tool enabled the wide evaluation of strategic options
and
the identification and appraisal of options that were robust
to climate change impacts. This appraisal was undertaken
iteratively at a broad-scale to filter strategic options.
During this process, a scenario-neutral approach was undertaken
to modelling and application of the MDSF decision testing
tool. An initial matrix of modelling was undertaken independently
of climate change scenario and strategic option. This initial
matrix was subsequently mapped across to particular strategic
options using an Excel Workbook (the computationally intensive
inundation modelling was thus decoupled from the economic
damage calculation and strategic option). Such an approach
enabled a wide variety of strategic options to be considered
without the need for each strategic option to be explicitly
modelled.
The development and trialling of ‘FloodRanger Professional’ as
a visualisation and strategic option exploration tool was
undertaken, both to assist with option appraisal and stakeholder
engagement. The version of FloodRanger developed through
the ESPACE project (called ‘Professional’ to
differentiate it from the previous ‘educational game’ version)
was able to import the MDSF generated Thames Estuary flood
risk data (for current conditions, 2050 and 2100) and interpolate
between these time slices to enable estimates of flood risks
for 10-year time slices. The software concept is considered
a significant innovation as it allows non-modellers to view
outputs of potentially complicated modelling and risk assessment
calculations in an intuitive and visually appealing software
product. Further development of the concept is recommended
to provide a simplified fit-for-purpose tool that will enable
flood risk managers and other stakeholders to be able to
assess, and to communicate to others, the positive and negative
impacts of proposed development.
Summary
of Candidates Tools
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